The election is now 38 days away. And while Joe Biden will almost surely win the popular vote, the worry has been that Trump could again lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College, or that if Biden wins but only narrowly then Trump might illegitimately cling to power.
It’s now clear we weren’t worrying hard enough. Because Trump looks set to declare victory no matter what the votes are and before millions of them are counted.
The plan revolves around mail-in voting. There was already an established pattern of the votes we count last, including provisional ballots and ballots received by mail, tending toward Democrats. And the difference will be much larger this year because of the pandemic, the increase it’s causing in overall mail-in voting, and how Trump’s downplaying of the pandemic and slandering of mail-in voting have made his supporters even more likely to vote in person.
These Republican-heavy votes cast in person will be the first ones counted. And all indications are that if Trump takes an early lead he’ll declare victory without finishing the race. And plans are being made to obstruct vote counting, to use Republican state legislatures to overrule voters, and if necessary to get a nudge over the finish line from a stacked Supreme Court.
We need to realize exactly what that would mean. Trump makes plenty of empty threats, but this is not one of them. Because democracies really do die; presidents really do become dictators. Democracies have ended in Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Egypt, Turkey, Hungary—and America could be next.
Few Americans fully feel the danger. Because what’s never happened feels like it never will happen, and all we’ve ever known is our flawed but real democracy. This misplaced sense of security is worsened by our myths of American exceptionalism and our ignorance of history.
But history’s warnings for us are dire. Our increasing polarization, eroding political norms, the antidemocratic actions of Republicans in Congress and state governments, and Trump’s authoritarian actions and rhetoric all closely match how democracies elsewhere have withered and died. And if Trump loses but holds onto power our democracy will be dead.
What would Trump do then? Just how dark might things get?
Memorials around Buenos Aires paint one vivid picture. Plaque after plaque on the sidewalks here name people who were disappeared, tortured, and murdered during Argentina’s Dirty War. From 1976 to 1983 the military dictatorship, with support from our very own CIA, murdered 30,000 people seen as opponents of the government, from journalists to labor leaders to artists to students to priests. Some of the places it happened now stand as memorials—and warnings.
If Trump tries to stay in power after losing the election he will absolutely need to be stopped. Because if he isn’t stopped, no matter what it costs, then the costs quickly go up.